Federal Reserve Meeting Updates: 2025 Rate Decisions & Insights
Constance Véron
Managing Director
Stay tuned here after every Fed meeting for the latest on rate decisions, press conference highlights, and economic implications.
June 18, 2025 – Fed Holds Rates at 4.25% – 4.50%
The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 4.25 – 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. The Committee noted that recent data shows the U.S. economy expanding at a solid pace, with a strong labor market. However, inflation remains “somewhat elevated,” and uncertainty, particularly around trade and tariffs, continues to cloud the outlook. The Fed confirmed it will continue reducing its Treasury and mortgage-backed securities holdings, maintaining its quantitative tightening campaign
In the press conference, Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed is in “no hurry” to move, echoing a cautious stance amid mixed signals. The updated dot plot continues to forecast two rate cuts by year-end, though a growing number of officials now see no cuts in 2025. Markets largely took it in stride, Treasury yields dipped slightly, while stocks showed limited reaction.
Redbridge View
Yields on cash and debt may remain sticky, even as inflation cools. Be proactive with your negotiations. Also, watch for windows to lock in your rates. Volatile expectations can create short-lived opportunities to optimize your cash returns and raise capital.
Yields on cash and debt may remain sticky, even as inflation cools. Be proactive with your negotiations. Also, watch for windows to lock in your rates. Volatile expectations can create short-lived opportunities to optimize your cash returns and raise capital.
May 7, 2025 – No Change; Elevated Uncertainty
At its early May meeting, the FOMC held rates steady at 4.25 – 4.50%, citing rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Chair Powell acknowledged that while the economy remains healthy, mounting tariff pressures could increase inflation and joblessness simultaneously, a stagflation risk. The Fed’s statement noted that uncertainty “has increased further,” leading it to maintain a patient stance.
According to the meeting minutes, almost all participants flagged persistent inflation and growing downside risks to employment. The labor market remains strong, but mixed economic indicators have pushed the first anticipated rate cut from June to September or later, according to analysts.
Redbridge View
Even when rates don’t move, market expectations drive shifts in borrowing costs, liquidity access, and cash yields. It’s not ‘wait and see’, it’s ‘react and reprice.’ For finance teams, understanding how rate signals influence bank behavior is key. In volatile cycles, timely insight can make all the difference.
Even when rates don’t move, market expectations drive shifts in borrowing costs, liquidity access, and cash yields. It’s not ‘wait and see’, it’s ‘react and reprice.’ For finance teams, understanding how rate signals influence bank behavior is key. In volatile cycles, timely insight can make all the difference.
March 19, 2025 – Paused as Inflation and Growth Signals Warrant Caution
At the mid-March meeting, the Fed again paused, keeping rates at 4.25 – 4.50%, amid a split in internal views, one vote dissented, and most officials favored waiting for more data. The Committee highlighted that inflation remained above target and uncertainty persisted, though recent economic activity had shown resilience.
Forward guidance in the post-meeting materials continued to forecast two rate cuts this year, but those remain conditional on incoming data. Powell’s comments reinforced the Fed’s balanced approach: “we don’t feel we need to be in a hurry,” underscoring a data-dependent posture.
Redbridge View
Expect banks to pass more costs onto clients. Don’t wait for the Fed to move, your banks already are. We’re seeing big shifts in pricing behavior.
Expect banks to pass more costs onto clients. Don’t wait for the Fed to move, your banks already are. We’re seeing big shifts in pricing behavior.
January 29, 2025 – First Meeting of the Year, No Change
The Fed began 2025 with a status quo decision, maintaining the rate at 4.25 – 4.50% and noting that inflation and employment are “roughly in balance”. There were no changes to reserve or repo operations, and interest on reserves remained at 4.4%.
In his opening remarks, Chair Powell emphasized flexibility: the Fed would act if needed, but would await clearer economic signals. This tone reinforced a prudent approach, neither hawkish nor dovish, and set the stage for cautious monitoring of inflation trajectory.
Redbridge View
As the Fed holds rates steady, it’s expectations, not action, that drive movement in borrowing costs and yields. Treasury teams should stay closely attuned to shifting rate sentiment and market pricing, as these can impact funding and investment decisions well before any official change. Keeping a pulse on forward-looking indicators is just as critical as tracking policy itself.
As the Fed holds rates steady, it’s expectations, not action, that drive movement in borrowing costs and yields. Treasury teams should stay closely attuned to shifting rate sentiment and market pricing, as these can impact funding and investment decisions well before any official change. Keeping a pulse on forward-looking indicators is just as critical as tracking policy itself.