Stay tuned here after every Fed meeting for the latest on rate decisions, press conference highlights, and economic implications.

September 17, 2025 – Long Anticipated Rate Cut at 25 bps

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% – 4.25%, the first cut of 2025. Chair Powell pointed to cooling economic momentum: slowing payroll growth, rising unemployment, and weaker factory activity. Inflation remains above the 2% target, but officials are still unclear about the short to medium term impact of tariffs on pricing.

Updated projections indicate two more cuts could follow by year-end, but the Fed stressed data dependence. The decision was not unanimous – Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 50 basis point cut, underscoring division on how aggressively to act. Markets had largely priced in the move, with yields dipping modestly and futures now assigning high odds to another cut at the October meeting. Tariffs and sticky core inflation remain risks that could slow the easing path.

August 1, 2025 – Fresh Data Renews Market Bets on September Cut

Just days after the Fed’s July 30 decision to hold rates steady, markets were rocked by weaker-than-expected jobs and manufacturing data. The July payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, far below expectations, while prior months saw major downward revisions. Unemployment also ticked up to 4.2%, and factory employment hit a five-year low. As a result, market odds for a rate cut in September have surged past 75%, reversing the post-meeting dip in expectations and increasing pressure on the Fed to pivot sooner than anticipated.

July 30, 2025 – Fed Holds Rates Steady & September Cut Less Certain

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.25% – 4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, as there are risks to both sides of the Fed mandate: moderating economic growth, but “somewhat elevated” inflation and a “very good” labor market. Powell indicated that most measures of longer-term expectations point toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target even as he indicated that inflation was somewhat “above target.” He acknowledged potential impacts from tariffs on goods prices even as services inflation eases, but there remains significant uncertainty. He is “going to need to see the data” before making a decision about September and would like to see data quality improvements.

Two Fed Governors dissented for the first time since 1993, favoring an immediate rate cut, highlighting growing internal divergence or perhaps an effort to position to be the next Fed Chair. We expect to see public commentary from the dissenters as early as Friday. Powell was more hawkish than the official statement in the press conference, indicating that you could argue that the Fed is “looking through” tariff impacts by not hiking rates now.

Stocks fell during the Q&A portion of his speech, as his answers were more hawkish than indicated in the statement and Treasury yields edged slightly higher. Expectations for the September cut declined from 68% yesterday to 48%, The Fed’s balance sheet runoff will continue. The stronger than expected GDP number will increase focus on Friday’s payroll number, but tariff disruptions make the situation somewhat unclear as companies accelerated imports ahead of expected tariffs, weakening GDP, and the recent bump certainly contains some impact of a reversal of the import impact. The market is also focused on big tech earnings with strong releases helping the market to pare some losses after the close.

Powell continues to support the independence of the Fed and declined to answer whether he will leave once his term as chair ends.

June 18, 2025 – Fed Holds Rates at 4.25% – 4.50%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 4.25 – 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. The Committee noted that recent data shows the U.S. economy expanding at a solid pace, with a strong labor market. However, inflation remains “somewhat elevated,” and uncertainty, particularly around trade and tariffs, continues to cloud the outlook. The Fed confirmed it will continue reducing its Treasury and mortgage-backed securities holdings, maintaining its quantitative tightening campaign

In the press conference, Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed is in “no hurry” to move, echoing a cautious stance amid mixed signals. The updated dot plot continues to forecast two rate cuts by year-end, though a growing number of officials now see no cuts in 2025. Markets largely took it in stride, Treasury yields dipped slightly, while stocks showed limited reaction.

May 7, 2025 – No Change; Elevated Uncertainty

At its early May meeting, the FOMC held rates steady at 4.25 – 4.50%, citing rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Chair Powell acknowledged that while the economy remains healthy, mounting tariff pressures could increase inflation and joblessness simultaneously, a stagflation risk. The Fed’s statement noted that uncertainty “has increased further,” leading it to maintain a patient stance.

According to the meeting minutes, almost all participants flagged persistent inflation and growing downside risks to employment. The labor market remains strong, but mixed economic indicators have pushed the first anticipated rate cut from June to September or later, according to analysts.

March 19, 2025 – Paused as Inflation and Growth Signals Warrant Caution

At the mid-March meeting, the Fed again paused, keeping rates at 4.25 – 4.50%, amid a split in internal views, one vote dissented, and most officials favored waiting for more data. The Committee highlighted that inflation remained above target and uncertainty persisted, though recent economic activity had shown resilience.

Forward guidance in the post-meeting materials continued to forecast two rate cuts this year, but those remain conditional on incoming data. Powell’s comments reinforced the Fed’s balanced approach: “we don’t feel we need to be in a hurry,” underscoring a data-dependent posture.

January 29, 2025 – First Meeting of the Year, No Change

The Fed began 2025 with a status quo decision, maintaining the rate at 4.25 – 4.50% and noting that inflation and employment are “roughly in balance”. There were no changes to reserve or repo operations, and interest on reserves remained at 4.4%.

In his opening remarks, Chair Powell emphasized flexibility: the Fed would act if needed, but would await clearer economic signals. This tone reinforced a prudent approach, neither hawkish nor dovish, and set the stage for cautious monitoring of inflation trajectory.